Which Queensland jockeys have been most profitable for punters during this season?
It’s important to note profit or loss does not correlate to ability. James McDonald and Hugh Bowman rank in the top few jockeys in Australia, yet both have shown an 11 per cent loss this season on rides up to $10 in the market.
For a start, they are competing in a tougher market, but also, their popularity with punters inevitably leads to many of their mounts being “over-bet”.
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Jockey Brad Stewart is a good bet for punters. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
So rather than trying to make a case for one jockey being better than another, what we are looking at here is a simple equation of which jockeys have given punters the best returns in Queensland racing.
The state riding premiership tells you Baylee Nothdurft is on top and Ryan Maloney has the best strike rate (among the top 20). The same two hold the same spots when the metropolitan premiership is isolated.
But what happens when you look beyond the raw numbers? When we look at jockey records on favourites and those up to $10 in the market?
The standout combining both measures is Brad Stewart.
He has a 46 per cent strike rate (34 from 74) on favourites, where you would have made 20 per cent profit on turnover backing every one of them (flat staking). It’s a long-term theme with Stewart; the last three seasons, he has a 42 per cent strike rate on favourites (108/258).
Looking beyond Stewart’s rides to include when he is on the first or second favourite, the strike rate is 37 per cent (48 from 131) and an 18 per cent profit. If we include all Stewart ridden runners up to $10 in the market, the strike rate is 27 per cent for a near 12 per cent profit.
Jim Byrne can’t match Stewart for rides up to $10 (25 per cent strike rate and 10 per cent loss), but he’s been deadly this season on fancied runners, with a 46 per cent strike rate on favourites (29 of 63).
Jim Byrne has had a great strike rate on fancied runners this season. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
Elyce Smith has an even healthier strike rate at 50 per cent since August 1 last year on the public elect. Nothdurft (40%/+2.5 profit) and Maloney (42%/+1.8) rank highly on this measure too, given they ride more favourites than anyone bar Robbie Fradd (40%/-9.9).
When we look further afield and include all rides up to $10 in the market, Taylor Marshall (41 per cent profit) has been a standout, as has North Queensland-based Frank Edwards, who is returning punters a 49.5 per cent profit from his 62 rides at $10 or shorter this season.
Originally published asPunters’ pal: Stewart stacks up under pressure
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