Runner-by-runner analysis for SERA Country Championships Qualifier

The SERA Country Championships Qualifier looks an open contest with the race being shaken up by the heavy (10) at Nowra.

We’ve analysed the form for the important race and given an assessment of each horses chances and if we believe they can win or simply fill a placing.

1 – ROYAL MONARCH – First-up off a 14-week break and always gives his all. Don’t think he will place but shouldn’t be triple figure odds.

Can he win? No – Can he place? No

2 – NEW KING (scratched)

3 – ART CADEAU – Consistent gelding that has never finished worse than second in nine starts. Won impressively in a Class 2 Highway Handicap last time out and handles the heavy ground. Tommy Berry rides but from barrier two, Art Cadeau would need the inside to be playing fairly.

Can he win? YES – Can he place? YES

4 – ROTHENBURG – Talented gelding that has form behind Montefillia. Won a Class 2 Highway Handicap at the same stage of his last preparation on heavy ground and can find a spot close to the speed in a race that lacks tempo. Like that he is drawn out on what should be a bog track. One of the main hopes.

Can he win? YES – Can he place? YES

5 – LEG WORK – Did beat the favourite over 1400m on heavy ground last prep and he’s returned two good runs this time in but could spot his rivals too big a start from the carpark draw. Sam Clipperton is a plus.

Can he win? NO – Can he place? YES

6 – DELACOUR – Three-year-old filly with a handy record of four wins from nine starts but don’t think her best is good enough.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? NO

7 – GIRLS ARE READY – She will get back to near last and will have a lot of ground to make up on a bog track.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? NO

8 – EXOTIC DEEL – Hard to knock her. Won three straight since resuming and ran on strongly for a narrow third behind Vreneli and Brazen Gem last start. The winner is handy and the runner-up won at Canterbury on Friday to add merit to the form. Would have liked to see her draw wider but given even luck, she should be in the finish.

Can she win? YES – Can she place? YES

9 – ELTHAM PALACE – Consistent mare that goes well in heavy going and will be rock hard fit for this. She’s never raced over 1400m in 16 starts, so that is the query.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? YES

10 – SHE’S ALL IN – Led all the way to win a Class 3 Highway Handicap on The Gong day and she’ll go forward again in this. Has had 12-weeks off since that run and trialled well since. A wet track won’t hinder her chances and she goes well first-up. Think she will give them something to catch in this and could deliver at a juicy price.

WOLLONGONG, AUSTRALIA – NOVEMBER 21: Brock Ryan on She’s All In returns to scale after winning race 2 the TAB Highway Handicap during ‘The Gong Race Day’ at Illawarra Turf Club, Kembla Grange, on November 21, 2020 in Wollongong, Australia. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)Source:Getty Images

Can she win? YES – Can she place? YES

11 – ROCKAROSA – Her three runs this time in have been good without winning and Keith Dryden should have her primed for this. Jay Ford has a good record aboard her and like that she is drawn wide. Did win the Queen Of The South at Wagga on a heavy (9) track.

Can she win? YES – Can she place? YES

12 – PROVEN CLASS – Get back and run-on type that has a good deal of ability but may have too much ground to make up at the business end.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? NO

13 – LADY DEMI – Ran on strongly behind Katgully Red last start and maps to get a good run from barrier seven. However, she’s never fired in four second-up runs and is untested on heavy ground.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? YES

14 – PROPOSE TO ME – Hard to knock her this prep, winning two from three with the only failure a narrow second at Canberra. Has upside and could run a cheeky race with just 54kg to carry.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? YES

15e – NIECES AND NEPHEWS – Led them up at the Sapphire Coast last start but couldn’t keep going in the wet conditions.

Can he win? NO – Can he place? NO

16e – WILFUL SOUL – Swimmer from the Keith Dryden stable that will improve off her first-up effort but is unplaced at three runs over 1400m.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? YES

17e – SUCCESFUL DAY – Finished 10 lengths from the winner last time out after leading. Not in this.

Can she win? NO – Can she place? NO

18e – COUP DE MAIN – First-up over 1400m off a 44-week break – no thanks.

Can he win? NO – Can he place? NO

19e – KATTEGAT – Consistent galloper that always gives his all and is undefeated from two starts at Nowra. Don’t think a heavy track will be to his liking.

Can he win? NO – Can he place? NO

20e – ZELAGO – Don’t think his form is good enough to be competitive in this.

Can he win? NO – Can she place? NO

It does look an open race and it wouldn’t surprise to see a rough result but I’ve narrowed it down to five winning chances.

1st – SHE’S ALL IN (No.10)

2nd – EXOTIC DEEL (No.8)

3rd – ART CADEAU (No.2)

4th – ROCKAROSA (No.11)

Originally published asNowra Country Championships Qualifier runner-by-runner analysis

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