Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season was pure chaos. Any week that features a 15.5-point underdog winning a game outright where only 15 total points were scored should qualify as such. Bettors watched as underdogs posted an incredible 10-4 mark against the spread while some dominated seemingly superior teams.
The lowly Jaguars earned their second win of the season over the heavily-favored Bills. The Broncos beat the Cowboys in Dallas and held a 3-0 lead at one point during the game. The Cardinals won without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green in the lineup while the Falcons and Titans pulled off wins as touchdown-plus underdogs.
Week 9 was certainly wild, but will the craziness continue into Week 10? Usually, there’s some sort of regression to the mean, so bettors can’t overreact too much to these results. And rest assured it’s normal for gamblers to question their confidence during a week that delivered a lot of wacky results.
Week 10’s game slate looks a bit more normal. There are four teams on bye once again — the Bears, Bengals, Giants and Texans — and seven of the 14 games feature a team that is favored by a touchdown or more.
There are plenty of divisional matchups in this week’s action, including two prime-time games. The Raiders and Chiefs will play on “Sunday Night Football” while the Rams and 49ers play on “Monday Night Football.” Division games aren’t always close, but they tend to mean a little more than non-divisional tilts. So often, the betting lines for those games are tight.
Injuries will be important to watch in Week 10, as always. Notably, Murray is still a bit banged-up and his status for the Cardinals-Panthers game is unclear. His status will have a big impact on the spread of that game even though Colt McCoy led Arizona to a victory last week in his absence.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News’ picks straight up and against the spread for Week 10.
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
NFL odds for Week 10
Below are the latest Week 10 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last updated: Thursday, Nov. 11.
NFL point spreads Week 10
NFL money lines Week 10
NFL over-unders Week 10
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NFL best bets for Week 10
Raiders (+2.5) vs. Chiefs
OK seriously, what is wrong with the Chiefs? They just managed to win for the third time in their last four games, but my goodness did they look bad doing it.
The Chiefs scored just 13 points against the Packers despite the fact Green Bay was without its two best cornerbacks, Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. The team racked up 237 yards, averaged 3.8 yards per play and saw Patrick Mahomes average a minuscule 4.5 yards per passing attempt.
Mahomes hasn’t looked good for weeks now. He hasn’t looked confident throwing the ball and hasn’t been able to make the big, splash plays for which the Chiefs have become known under his watch. He should snap out of it eventually, but until he does, he and the Chiefs need to be faded.
You may not believe this, but fading the Chiefs has actually been easy money over the last two seasons. No joke. The Chiefs have the second-worst record against the spread both this season and since the start of the 2020 season. They have a total ATS record of 10-18 (a 35.7 cover percentage) and a 2-7 record (22.2 cover percentage) in 2021. That’s just terrible.
It was one thing to trust the Chiefs when their defense was playing poorly and offense was succeeding. Trusting them when each unit has its share of problems? That doesn’t sound like something you should do.
And yes, the Chiefs’ defense still isn’t good. I know you’re probably thinking, wait a minute — the Chiefs have actually played good defensively lately, so they’ve turned the corner, right? And sure, they’ve allowed an average of 16 points in their last four games (3-1 record).
That said, have you looked at the quarterbacks they’ve played? That may make you change your mind about the Chiefs’ defense.
Derek Carr is better than the three quarterbacks on that list that the Chiefs beat, so he and the Raiders should have a good chance to produce in this game. Getting them as three-point underdogs would be more favorable, but the Raiders match up well with the Chiefs and will have a raucous, home-field advantage in Vegas for a prime-time clash with their long-time rival.
It won’t be easy for the Chiefs to play at The Death Star. As such, this could be an upset. Feel free to take the points.
Saints (+3) at Titans
I know that betting against the Titans hasn’t been a winning strategy this year. They have a 7-2 record against the spread and have pulled off upset wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams in four consecutive weeks.
Even still, fading them looks like the right move in Week 10. Why?
First of all, this figures to be a tough matchup for the Titans’ offense. The Saints have the league’s No. 1 run defense and are allowing just 73.8 rushing yards per game. If the Saints can render the Titans largely one-dimensional, that could make Ryan Tannehill have to carry the team to victory, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success.
Second — and more importantly — the Titans’ big win over the Rams was a bit of a mirage. I can already hear Titans fans getting mad about that statement, so let me clarify.
It wasn’t a total fluke; the Titans’ defense played extremely well and did a great job of pressuring Matthew Stafford. They sacked him five times after he had been sacked just eight times all season long entering the game. They also forced a couple of key turnovers and made Sean McVay’s game plan look foolish.
However, it’s worth noting that the Titans’ offense didn’t do much at all against the Rams. They generated just 194 total yards and 3.5 yards per play. Comparatively, the Rams had 347 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per play.
So, how did the Titans win? They got 14 points off turnovers. Stafford gifted them the ball, via an interception, on the 3-yard line for a one-play scoring drive. Immediately following that, Stafford tossed an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
Without those lucky turnovers, the game is much closer. The Titans still probably win and definitely cover against the Rams, but the point is they may need their defense to generate big plays to prop up their lackluster offense on Sunday. They just lacked a certain punch with Derrick Henry out of commission.
Trevor Siemian and the Saints could turn the ball over, but the Titans may have trouble pressuring them. New Orleans has allowed just 1.6 sacks per game this season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the NFL. So, if Siemian has time in the pocket, he should avoid interceptions as he has during his first game and a half with the Saints.
Don’t sleep on the Saints. They might not win this one outright, but they have the personnel needed to give the Titans trouble. They’re also coming off a loss to a divisional rival, so they’ll be motivated to bounce back and keep this game against the Titans close.
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Steelers (-9) vs. Lions
Betting the Steelers as more than a touchdown favorite may seem a bit risky. Their five wins this season have come by eight or fewer points, after all.
That said, the Lions are the weakest competition that the Steelers have faced to date, and Pittsburgh’s strengths match up very well with Detroit’s weaknesses.
The Lions have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They are allowing an average of 134.5 yards per game, which is good for the fourth-most in the NFL. They are also one of two teams that has allowed 16 TDs to RBs this season. The other is the Jets.
The Steelers’ offense runs through Najee Harris, and the talented rookie back is averaging 23.8 touches and 103.8 scrimmage yards per game. He should be able to find the end-zone against this defense which should give Pittsburgh good scoring potential. He’ll also set up some play action throws, so that’s an advantage to the Steelers’ offense.
Defensively, the Steelers should have an advantage as well. The Lions have struggled against strong pass rushes and have allowed Jared Goff to be sacked 23 times in eight games. Pittsburgh just managed to rattle the hyper-mobile Justin Fields and sack him three times. Goff may have better protection, but his lacking mobility could lead to a big day for the Steelers.
The Steelers’ defense has allowed just 19 points per game during their four-game winning streak, too, while the Lions have averaged just 16.8 points per game this season and 14.4 points per game since Week 2. So, Pittsburgh’s offense should only need to rack up about 24 points to cover here — if all goes well on defense.
Maybe the Lions will have a little extra juice coming out of their bye week, but their team is just so light on talent. It’s hard to imagine them finding success against a good defense, so rolling with Pittsburgh here is a fine move.
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